July 12, 2024

Jim Bianco’s Bold Prediction on the 10-Year Treasury Yield Surge

Image Credits: CNBC


In the ever-fluctuating landscape of the financial markets, seasoned market forecaster Jim Bianco has made a bold proclamation sending shockwaves across Wall Street. Brace yourselves as Bianco anticipates the 10-year Treasury yield hitting an impressive 5.5% – a level not witnessed since the days of George W. Bush’s presidency.

Unveiling the Forecast:

Bianco, the president of Bianco Research, stands firm on his forecast, projecting the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield to reach its highest point since May 2001. What’s driving his prediction? A significant component of his thesis hinges on the robust strength and resilience of the economy.

“I don’t think the economy is hurt by 5% interest rates. I don’t think the economy is really hurt by 7%, maybe high 7%, mortgages,” Bianco confidently stated during a recent appearance on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” “I don’t think something is broken because of these rates.”

The Catalysts:

According to Bianco, the catalysts for this surge lie in the economy’s ability to withstand inflation, which bottomed around 3%, and maintain stable demand. “You add the two together, you get 5.5%,” he explained. “That’s where I come up with 5.5% for the yield. That’s nominal GDP. The 10-year yield should approximate where nominal GDP is.”

Summer Showdown:

Hold onto your hats, as Bianco predicts this financial rollercoaster will peak as early as summer. This seasoned forecaster, who accurately predicted last fall’s yield spike above 5%, believes we’re in for another round of market excitement.

Federal Reserve’s Role:

Adding an intriguing twist to the tale, Bianco incorporates the possibility of the Federal Reserve making significant moves. Contrary to popular belief, the Fed may not be as aggressive in cutting interest rates as many expect. “The Fed may be a little stickier in cutting rates. It doesn’t mean they won’t cut rates. It just might not be as aggressive as everybody says,” warns Bianco, the same expert who cautioned about “higher inflation for the first time in a generation” back in late 2020.

Current Landscape:

As of the latest market close, the 10-year yield stands at 3.9%, leaving us to wonder how quickly and dramatically the financial landscape might evolve in the coming months.


Jim Bianco’s forecast is not merely a prediction; it’s a glimpse into the potential future of the financial markets. Strap in and stay tuned as we navigate these uncharted waters, guided by the insights of one of Wall Street’s seasoned navigators.

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